Zcash price has fallen below $1,500 after a sharp reversal from its September highs triggered profit-taking and a leveraged long unwind, while the Bitget hack and weaker crypto market conditions have kept pressure on ZEC.
CoinGecko data at the time of writing showed ZEC trading near $1,422, down 7.9% over the past 24 hours and 5.5% over seven days.
The token briefly fell towards $1,360 on Sept. 29 before recovering part of the loss.
The decline followed an unusually strong September run. ZEC remained up 69% over the past 30 days despite the latest sell-off, after climbing from around $1,000 earlier in the month to a recent high near $1,700.
Profit-taking began as ZEC repeatedly failed to hold the $1,600 to $1,700 area.
Selling accelerated on Sept. 28 and Sept. 29, pushing the token through $1,500 and eventually towards $1,350.
Derivatives positioning has made the move more volatile. ZEC perpetual futures open interest stood near $2.68 billion across 33 tracked venues early on Sept. 29, according to Loris Tools, while the volume-weighted price had fallen 11.3% over 24 hours.
Long liquidations were already building a day earlier. According to Coinglass data, $2.14 million in ZEC longs were liquidated across Binance, Bybit and OKX as the token fell to $1,492 on Sept. 28.
Earlier in September, ZEC open interest had climbed above $2 billion as the token rallied, while tens of millions of dollars in short positions were liquidated during the move higher.
Falling price alongside the recent contraction in open interest indicates that some traders have been closing leveraged positions as ZEC retreats from its highs.
Forced long liquidations can accelerate the move because exchanges close leveraged positions when traders can no longer meet margin requirements.
Simultaneously, the Bitget hack has introduced a separate Zcash-specific risk.
The exchange initially disclosed losses of around $351.6 million following the breach, with the total later revised to $387.5 million after further tracing of affected assets.
ZEC was among the assets identified in the later tracing, creating uncertainty over whether stolen coins could eventually reach the market.
Bitget raised its estimate of affected funds from $351.6 million to $387.5 million after tracing additional Zcash and TRON assets linked to the attacker.
Traders maybe concerned that the stolen ZEC could enter the market if the attacker moves or converts the funds, adding uncertainty while ZEC is already facing profit-taking and leveraged liquidations.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s decline towards $83,000 has added to the difficult conditions for ZEC.
The privacy coin entered the pullback after gaining considerably more than much of the crypto market during September, leaving traders with large unrealised profits and giving them more incentive to lock in gains as market conditions weakened.
ZEC price analysis
ZEC’s daily chart shows how quickly the latest correction developed after the token reached the $1,600 to $1,700 area.
Price fell to an intraday low of $1,356 on Sept. 29 before recovering towards $1,423, leaving $1,350 to $1,400 as the first support area.
ZEC/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.
Average Directional Index stood at 57.40 on the daily chart. ADX readings above 25 normally indicate a strong trend, and a reading above 50 points to an unusually strong one.
ADX does not determine direction on its own, so the high reading needs to be considered alongside ZEC’s price structure.
The indicator rose rapidly during September as ZEC moved from around $500 to above $1,600.
It has remained elevated during the latest fall, meaning the market is still moving with substantial trend strength even as price retreats from its high.
ZEC’s Coppock Curve remained positive at 67.08, although it has eased from the higher readings recorded during the September rally.
A positive Coppock reading means the longer-term momentum structure has not yet turned negative.
A daily close below $1,350 would weaken that structure by taking ZEC beneath the Sept. 29 low.
The next visible price area sits around $1,250 to $1,300, where ZEC traded during the middle of September.
Below it, the $1,100 to $1,200 region formed a large consolidation area before the final leg of the September rally.
Price would need to reclaim $1,500 to begin repairing the latest breakdown. Above $1,500, the next resistance sits around $1,550 to $1,600, followed by the recent high near $1,700.
Short-term readings remain tilted towards sellers at the moment. On the 4-hour chart, Aroon Down stood at 92.86% while Aroon Up was 21.43%.
ZEC/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.
With Aroon Down at 92.86% against Aroon Up at 21.43%, sellers remain in control of the four-hour trend as ZEC continues to make recent lows while attempts to recover have struggled to produce new highs.
The 4-hour Chaikin Money Flow fell to -0.17 as ZEC retreated from the $1,600 area, showing that selling volume has outweighed buying volume during the latest decline and buyers have yet to regain control.
ZEC bounced from around $1,356 to $1,423 after the latest drop, but CMF would need to move back towards zero while Aroon Up rises relative to Aroon Down to support a stronger recovery in the 4-hour structure.
ZEC could retest $1,350 if selling continues, and losing that support would put $1,300 in sight before the larger $1,200 area comes into play.
On the upside, a return above $1,500 could open a move towards $1,550 to $1,600. Clearing that range would bring ZEC closer to another test of its recent high near $1,700.
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