Bitcoin faced renewed pressure over the last few days as higher oil prices and rising US Treasury yields encouraged investors to reduce risk exposure.
The continued disruptions to Middle East energy supply chains linked to the US-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel and the US 10-year Treasury yield beyond 5.3%.
Those moves heightened concerns about inflation and financial conditions, weighing on Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a recovery.
Higher oil prices and yields dampen risk appetite
Rising energy costs can complicate the inflation outlook, while higher Treasury yields increase the appeal of interest-bearing investments.
Together, those pressures contributed to a more cautious trading environment for Bitcoin and other assets sensitive to changes in risk appetite.
The macroeconomic backdrop also leaves crypto prices exposed to further volatility if supply disruptions worsen or bond yields continue climbing.
In an email to Invezz earlier this week, Utkarsh Ahuja, Founder and Managing Partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, noted that the cost of capital still sets the direction for markets.
“Crypto, AI, quantum and other frontier technologies are highly sensitive to capital availability because a significant portion of their value rests on future growth. Lower real yields and easier financial conditions give investors greater room to underwrite that growth, while higher rates force much greater discipline around valuation and risk,” the analyst said.
Expert View
I remain constructive heading into Q4, but fading expectations for an October hike are not an all-clear for risk assets. Inflation remains the constraint. The Fed can pause while keeping financial conditions tight, and there is an important difference between the end of additional tightening and the beginning of genuinely easier monetary conditions.
Bitcoin trades below short-term moving averages
On the four-hour and daily charts, BTC/USD traded below its 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating weakness in the shorter-term trend.
However, the price remained above the 200-period moving average, suggesting the longer-term structure on that timeframe had not fully broken down.
$83,696 is an important resistance barrier in the near term. A sustained recovery above it would help strengthen the case for stabilization.
MACD and the Awesome Oscillator pointed to downward momentum, while ADX readings were consistent with the prevailing trend.
RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power readings indicated stretched downside conditions, while Stochastic RSI remained neutral.
These signals suggest selling has been substantial, but oversold conditions alone do not establish that a rebound is imminent. Prices can remain under pressure while momentum indicators stay depressed.
The combination of macroeconomic conditions explained above and weak technical signals continues to constrain Bitcoin’s rebound prospects.
For this reason, the short-term market condition below $83,696 remains bearish, with no strong recovery signal emerging at the moment.
Failure to reclaim the key resistance level could result in Bitcoin consolidating between $83,000 and $79,655 over the next few days.
A sustained move above $83,696 would be an initial requirement for a stronger recovery. Conversely, a break below the projected range’s $79,655 lower boundary would weaken the consolidation scenario and raise the risk of further losses.
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