Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are showing signs of recovery on Monday following a difficult October marked by four consecutive weeks of losses.
Bitcoin has climbed above $78,200 after finding support around crucial technical levels.
Despite the modest recovery, technical indicators suggest that bullish momentum remains fragile, particularly for Bitcoin, which continues to trade below its 50-day EMA.
Bitcoin might not hit $100,000 in 2026
The primary catalyst behind last week’s sell-off was the Binance hack.
Binance, the leading crypto exchange by trading volume, was hacked for nearly $6.4 billion. However, Binance was able to freeze some of the assets thanks to efforts from Tether and Circle.
The selloff saw Bitcoin drop to the $76,100 level before recovering to now trade above $78,000 per coin.
The reaction from traditional investors has been significant. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643 million in net outflows on Friday, their first trading session following the hack.
In an email to Invezz, Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, stated that the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before the end of the year has dropped. He added that,
One of the most significant changes we've seen is in the market's expectations for Bitcoin's year-end price. Last Wednesday, Derive options were pricing a 6% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100K by Christmas. That has now fallen to just 3.5%, or roughly a one-in-30 chance.
The probability of Bitcoin exceeding $90K by December 25 is now just 14%, while the chance of it being above $80K stands at 44%.
Bitcoin faces resistance at $80,307 as recovery remains fragile
Bitcoin is trading around $78,200 on Monday, recovering from recent selling pressure while consolidating between important moving averages.
The leading cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day EMA at $80,307, which represents the first major resistance level that buyers must overcome to strengthen the recovery.
However, Bitcoin continues to trade above its 100-day EMA at $77,831 and 200-day EMA at $76,471, suggesting that its broader technical structure has not completely deteriorated.
These longer-term moving averages provide potential support against further declines, although the inability to reclaim the 50-day EMA indicates that sellers retain some control over short-term price action.
Momentum indicators also reflect the market’s uncertainty. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 40, below the neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant despite the recent recovery.
Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, suggesting that buying pressure has yet to strengthen sufficiently to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.
Bitcoin’s next directional move could depend on whether buyers can push the cryptocurrency above the 50-day EMA at $80,307.
A sustained daily close above this resistance level would improve the short-term technical outlook and potentially open the door for a recovery toward $85,000.
The $85,000 level represents an important horizontal resistance zone where sellers previously emerged, making it a potential obstacle to further gains.
Conversely, failure to overcome $80,307 could expose Bitcoin to renewed selling pressure.
The first downside support sits around the 100-day EMA at $77,831. A decisive break below this level would increase the likelihood of a retest of the 200-day EMA at $76,471.
A daily close beneath $76,471 would weaken Bitcoin’s broader technical structure and could signal the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.
For now, Bitcoin appears positioned for range-bound trading between its shorter-term resistance and longer-term support levels until a decisive breakout establishes a clearer directional trend.
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