Bitcoin and Ethereum held firm on Thursday after Citigroup raised its 12-month forecasts for both assets, adding another Wall Street endorsement to a crypto rebound that has gathered pace since July.
Citi lifted its Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and its Ether forecast to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger market activity, an improving macro backdrop and the return of exchange-traded fund inflows.
Bitcoin traded around $84,000, while Ethereum was near $2,700.
The new targets imply roughly 35% upside for Bitcoin and about 12% for Ethereum, but the rally still faces high bond yields, inconsistent ETF demand and unresolved US regulation.
Citi sees institutional demand returning
Citi expects about $5 billion of net crypto inflows over the next 12 months as advisers and brokerages gradually increase allocations, reversing the bank’s more cautious July view when it assumed no fresh ETF demand.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.39 billion between September 21 and September 25, according to Farside Investors. Ethereum funds drew roughly $690 million over the same period.
The rebound helped Bitcoin gain more than 40% during the third quarter, its best quarter since late 2024. Ethereum has risen even faster over the past three months.
Citi’s call is still less aggressive than it first appears. Its $113,000 Bitcoin target remains below the record above $126,000 reached in October 2025, suggesting the bank is forecasting a substantial recovery rather than an immediate breakout to new highs.
The rally still has a 5.3% yield problem
The biggest macro obstacle is the bond market.
Bitcoin briefly climbed above $85,500 after softer US inflation data on Wednesday, but the move faded as the 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 5.3%.
The yield has reached its highest level since 2002, giving investors an unusually attractive risk-free alternative to assets that generate no income.
LVRG Research chief analyst Dan Khus told CoinDesk that softer inflation had initially encouraged investors to take more risk, but persistently high Treasury yields prevented Bitcoin’s move above $85,000 from holding.
That matters because crypto’s summer rally was helped by a softer dollar and expectations for easier financial conditions. If yields stay above 5%, that tailwind becomes harder to sustain.
ETF flows and Washington are the next tests
Institutional demand has also become less consistent. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $148.7 million of net outflows on September 30 after modest inflows in the previous two sessions, while Ethereum ETFs lost $59.6 million, Farside data show.
Regulation remains another unresolved risk. The US Senate failed last month to advance the Clarity Act, with the 50-49 procedural vote falling short of the 60 votes needed. The legislation was designed to establish a broad federal framework for digital assets.
Citi said subsequent SEC rule announcements had softened some of the negative reaction, but the failure narrowed the path to comprehensive market-structure legislation.
Giottus chief executive Vikram Subburaj told Moneycontrol that holding the $82,000-$82,500 area remains important, while ETF flows and upcoming US economic data should determine whether buyers regain control.
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