Updated 20 October 2026. XRP traded at $1.30 on Tuesday 20 October, down about 1 percent in 24 hours (CoinGecko at 13:15 UTC; CoinDesk $1.30; Fortune $1.29 at 8:15 am ET). The 24-hour range is $1.29-$1.32 (Blockchain.News). The coin is about 6 percent below its weekly 200-period exponential moving average near $1.377, a level it has sat on since August (TheCryptoBasic), with Ripple’s next escrow release of up to 1 billion XRP due on Sunday 1 November. Verdict: the unlock is twelve days away and priced; the weekly 200 EMA and bitcoin below $82,000 are what decide this week. Reference levels: $1.24 below, $1.38 above.
Key facts
- Tuesday price: $1.30, down 0.98 percent in 24 hours (CoinGecko, 13:15 UTC). CoinDesk listed about $1.30 with $790.91 million of 24-hour volume. Fortune had $1.29 at 8:15 am ET. CryptoTicker had $1.29, down 1.33 percent on the day and 5.86 percent on the week, with a market cap of $81.83 billion.
- The trend: down about 7 percent over seven days and 9 percent over 30 days (TheCryptoBasic). CryptoTicker puts the year-to-date loss at 29.55 percent.
- The level: the weekly 200 EMA sits near $1.377 and XRP trades roughly 6 percent below it. The weekly 50-period average is near $1.49 (TheCryptoBasic).
- Bitcoin: $81,377, down 1.3 percent in 24 hours (CoinGecko). It has failed to reclaim $84,000 since losing it in early October (CryptoTicker).
- Escrow: two XRP Ledger escrow objects totalling 1 billion XRP become releasable at 00:00 UTC on 1 November. Over the last twelve cycles Ripple released 12 billion and re-locked 8.4 billion, or 70 percent; in October it re-locked 700 million of the 1 billion (CryptoTicker, 17 October).
- ETFs: US spot XRP ETFs saw a $2.47 million net outflow on Friday 16 October, all from Canary’s XRPC, against $1.800 billion of cumulative inflows and $1.471 billion of net assets (CryptoTicker). On Monday all US crypto ETFs took in a net $416.7 million, led by $526.7 million into bitcoin funds (Farside Investors).
Why XRP is slipping this week
The move is the market’s, not Ripple’s. Bitcoin is at $81,377 after September US CPI printed 3.7 percent against 3.6 percent expected, Brent is back above $100 on the Strait of Hormuz attacks, and the Fed meets on 27-28 October with a December hike priced at close to 90 percent. We covered the bitcoin break in our 15 October bitcoin piece and the ETF rebound in Monday’s ETF flow report. Glassnode data cited by CryptoTicker say heavy selling has slowed, but spot and ETF demand is too weak for a recovery, and perpetual futures traders were the main sellers.
XRP has been weaker than bitcoin on every window. Its seven-day loss of about 6-7 percent compares with 2.9 percent for bitcoin, and its 29.55 percent year-to-date loss with bitcoin’s 7 percent (CryptoTicker). The reason is positioning. On Binance, 72.1 percent of open positions are long and the top-trader long/short ratio is 3.0, yet the taker buy/sell ratio is 0.87, so the marginal flow is selling into a crowded long book (Blockchain.News).
The weekly 200 EMA
TheCryptoBasic’s case is that XRP spent the last two months sitting directly on its weekly 200 EMA and has now slipped below it. Analyst Gerla (@CryptoGerla) put it plainly: “XRP doesn’t look good here.” Below the weekly average there is no major support until the $1.00 area, which is where the August low bounced, and the monthly RSI at 46.16 is below its 49.49 average. The reclaim level is a weekly close back above $1.37.
The daily picture is more balanced. Blockchain.News puts the daily pivot at $1.30 with support at $1.29 and $1.27 and resistance at $1.32 and $1.34. The daily RSI is 36.51, the stochastic is under 20 and the 200-day simple moving average is at $1.28, just under the price, with the lower Bollinger band at $1.24. A close below $1.27 negates the bounce setup and brings $1.24 into view; CryptoTicker’s next support below $1.29 is around $1.20.
What the 1 November unlock does and does not mean
The gross number is 1 billion XRP, worth about $1.3 billion at Tuesday’s price. The net number is what matters, and it is unknown until Ripple re-locks. Over the twelve releases from November 2025 to October 2026, 70 percent went straight back into new escrow contracts, leaving an average of about 300 million XRP a month, and CryptoTicker notes that even that average is not a promise for November, nor can ledger data show what Ripple did with October’s net 300 million. Ripple-controlled escrow held 31.40 billion XRP at the 18 October snapshot, 31.4 percent of the 100 billion supply, as set out in our 18 October unlock explainer.
The unlock has happened on the first of every month for years. It is a reason for the headline writers, not for the price, which is why the ETF tape matters more: the dedicated US spot XRP funds have lost small amounts for five straight sessions through 16 October, about $1.8 million net, on $1.47 billion of assets. That is 0.1 percent of the funds, not an exit, but it means the buyer that drove XRP in the summer is absent while bitcoin funds have just taken in $526.7 million in a day.
XRP this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | XRP | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $1.24 | Bitcoin loses $80,000, XRP closes below $1.27 and the crowded Binance long book unwinds. | The lower Bollinger band at $1.24 (Blockchain.News), with CryptoTicker’s $1.20 support beneath it. About 4.6 percent below Tuesday’s $1.30. |
| Base | $1.27-$1.34 | Bitcoin holds $80,000-$84,000 into the FOMC and XRP trades the daily pivot. | Blockchain.News’ strong support and strong resistance; CoinDCX’s weekly channel of $1.28-$1.40. |
| Bull | $1.38 | Bitcoin reclaims $84,000, XRP ETF flows turn positive and the coin closes back above the weekly 200 EMA. | The weekly 200 EMA near $1.377 and the daily EMA-26 at $1.38. CoinDCX’s 16 October call was $1.36 by 23 October. About 6 percent above Tuesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. The levels are technical reference points measured from the verified Tuesday quote, not price forecasts. For the year end, BlockchainReporter’s Shayan Chowdhury (19 October) has a $1.20-$1.55 base case centred near $1.40.
What to watch this week
- $1.27: the invalidation. A daily close below it turns the $1.24 band into the target.
- $1.37-$1.38: the weekly 200 EMA. XRP has to close the week above it to end the “lost the average” story.
- Bitcoin at $84,000: the level it has failed to reclaim since early October. XRP has not rallied without it.
- ETF flows: the daily XRP fund prints, which have been negative since 12 October, and whether Monday’s $526.7 million bitcoin inflow repeats.
- 27-28 October: the FOMC decision. Read our Fed odds explainer for how the pricing moved after CPI.
- 1 November, 00:00 UTC: the escrow release, and the re-lock transactions that follow within hours.
Quick take: XRP is at $1.30, about 6 percent below its weekly 200 EMA, with bitcoin at $81,377 and XRP ETFs bleeding small amounts for five sessions. The 1 November unlock is gross 1 billion but net about 300 million on the twelve-month average. Expect $1.27-$1.34. A weekly close above $1.38 ends the breakdown. A close below $1.27 opens $1.24.
FAQ
What is the XRP price today?
$1.30 on Tuesday 20 October 2026, down about 1 percent in 24 hours, with a 24-hour range of $1.29-$1.32 (CoinGecko, CoinDesk, Blockchain.News).
Why is XRP falling?
Bitcoin is stuck below $82,000 after a hot US CPI print and higher oil, XRP ETFs have seen five sessions of small outflows, and the coin has slipped below its weekly 200 EMA near $1.377, which TheCryptoBasic flags as the key technical break.
What happens on 1 November?
Two escrow objects holding 1 billion XRP become releasable at 00:00 UTC. Over the last twelve months Ripple re-locked 70 percent of each release, leaving an average of about 300 million XRP a month (CryptoTicker).
Will the unlock crash the XRP price?
It has not in any of the last twelve months, because most of the tokens go back into escrow. The net amount for November is not known in advance, and the price has moved with bitcoin and ETF flows rather than with the release.
What is the support level for XRP?
$1.29 and $1.27 on the daily chart, with the lower Bollinger band at $1.24 (Blockchain.News). CryptoTicker sees $1.20 beneath that, and TheCryptoBasic’s major support is the $1.00 area.
What is the resistance level for XRP?
$1.32 and $1.34 on the day, then the weekly 200 EMA near $1.377 and the $1.60 zone that has capped every rally since August (TheCryptoBasic).
Are XRP ETFs seeing inflows?
Not this month. The dedicated US spot XRP ETFs lost about $1.8 million net over the five sessions to 16 October, and Friday’s $2.47 million outflow came entirely from Canary’s XRPC. Cumulative inflows since launch are $1.800 billion (CryptoTicker).
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Prices are as of the times stated and move continuously. Sources: CoinGecko, CoinDesk, Fortune, Blockchain.News, TheCryptoBasic, CryptoTicker, Farside Investors, XRP Insights. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
