XRP price has held near $1.49 over the past 24 hours as several institutional and market catalysts have lined up ahead of a possible attempt to reclaim $1.60.
CoinGecko data showed XRP trading at $1.49 at the time of writing, up around 0.5% over the past day despite remaining 7.7% lower over seven days.
The token has traded between roughly $1.46 and $1.63 during the past week, with its latest rebound towards $1.55 quickly giving back part of the move.
XRP’s attempt to recover comes as Ripple has expanded the use of the XRP Ledger in Brazil’s regulated financial market.
Ripple announced on Sept. 29 that CSD BR will use XRPL as an additional recording and auditing layer for financial assets, starting with investment fund shares issued by BTG Pactual.
CSD BR will remain the official system of record, while information registered through its existing infrastructure will be mirrored on XRPL.
Ripple described the deployment as taking tokenisation beyond controlled tests and into a live market environment.
The arrangement gives XRPL a role in Brazil’s financial market infrastructure at a time when XRP is trying to hold above the $1.45 to $1.50 area.
Institutional attention could remain in focus on Sept. 30 as shareholders of Armada Acquisition Corp. II are scheduled to vote on its proposed merger with XRP treasury company Evernorth.
Evernorth plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN if shareholders approve the deal and the remaining closing conditions are met. Ripple, SBI, Pantera and Kraken are among the companies backing the firm.
Evernorth is expected to launch with at least 473 million XRP and plans to deploy capital across the XRP ecosystem.
Approval of the transaction would move the company closer to its planned public listing, although the shareholder vote does not itself mean Evernorth will make an immediate XRP purchase.
US spot XRP ETFs recorded $75.59 million in net inflows during the week ended September 25, lifting cumulative net inflows to roughly $1.79 billion.
The inflows continued in the latest reported sessions. XRP ETFs attracted $3.96 million on September 28 after recording $22.65 million in the previous trading session.
That continued inflow provides a source of spot-market demand as XRP attempts to recover from its recent pullback.
Continued positive flows would maintain an existing source of spot market demand as XRP attempts to recover from its seven day decline.
Against this backdrop, large XRP holders have been accumulating tokens over the past week, with Santiment data showing that millionaire wallets accumulated more than 470 million XRP within five days.
Their combined holdings increased from 12.37 billion XRP to 12.80 billion XRP during the period.
The purchases were valued at roughly $724 million at the time, with the accumulation taking place before Sept. 24.
XRP price analysis
XRP was trading close to $1.50 on the daily chart after recovering from its August low near $1.00.
Price has moved above all four major exponential moving averages, with the 20 day EMA at $1.4608, the 50 day EMA at $1.3718, the 100 day EMA at $1.3716 and the 200 day EMA at $1.3114.
The 20 day EMA has climbed above the longer averages, while XRP’s current price remains roughly 2.5% above it. See below.
Holding $1.46 would therefore keep price above its nearest dynamic support and leave the recent $1.55 to $1.60 region within reach.
A daily close below $1.46 would weaken that structure and expose the closely grouped 50 day and 100 day EMAs near $1.37.
The 200 day EMA at $1.31 would become the next major moving average support if sellers push XRP through that area.
Daily RSI stood at 56.50, while its moving average was higher at 58.65. RSI remains above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory, leaving room for price to rise if buying pressure returns.
A move back above 60 would strengthen the momentum behind another test of the recent highs, while a drop below 50 would accompany a loss of momentum towards the $1.46 support.
On the 4 hour chart, XRP was trading at $1.4960 between the lower Bollinger Band at $1.4688 and the middle band at $1.5048. The upper band stood at $1.5408.
Price has repeatedly held close to the lower band following its retreat from the recent peak near $1.65.
A move above the $1.5048 middle band would put $1.54 back in focus, with a break above the upper band opening the route towards the $1.55 to $1.60 resistance zone.
The 4 hour MACD remained slightly bearish, although the gap between the MACD and signal lines was narrow.
The MACD line stood at -0.0071 against a signal line of -0.0064, while the histogram was close to zero at -0.0007.
A bullish crossover near the zero line, combined with XRP moving above the Bollinger midline, would support an attempt at $1.54 first.
Clearing $1.54 to $1.55 would leave $1.60 as the next target, followed by the recent high around $1.65.
Failure to recover $1.50 to $1.54 would keep XRP close to the lower Bollinger Band at $1.4688.
A break below that level would bring the daily 20 day EMA near $1.46 into play, while a daily loss of $1.46 would expose the $1.37 area formed by the 50 day and 100 day EMAs.
XRP could therefore make another run at $1.60 if price clears the $1.54 to $1.55 resistance zone, while a break below $1.46 would put the bullish case at risk.
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